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GOLD AND SILVER SURGE
Gold and silver have rallied sharply since Monday as lower oil prices, softer labor data and reduced expectations for another near-term Federal Reserve rate increase fueled buying.
Metal | Monday AM | Thursday AM | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
Gold | ~$4,049 | ~$4,271 | +5.5% |
Silver | ~$57.93 | ~$61.84 | +6.8% |
Platinum | ~$1,643 | ~$1,761 | +7.2% |
Gold reached a seven-week high after recording its strongest one-day advance in approximately six months on Wednesday. Silver broke decisively above $60 before easing slightly Thursday morning.
WHAT’S DRIVING THE MOVE
Lower oil: Brent crude fell below $80 amid hopes that an Iran-Oman agreement could improve shipping conditions through the Strait of Hormuz. Lower energy prices are easing fears of another inflation shock.
Reduced Fed-hike expectations: The market-implied probability of a September rate increase fell from approximately 67% to 55% over two days.
Softer employment data: Slower private-sector job growth increased expectations that the Fed may remain on hold rather than tighten again immediately.
Modestly lower Treasury yields: The 10-year yield has eased from roughly 4.69% Monday to approximately 4.61% Thursday. The move has helped metals, although yields have been volatile rather than falling continuously.
Weaker dollar and technical buying: Dollar weakness supported metals, while gold’s break above $4,100 and silver’s move through $60 triggered momentum buying and short covering.
INDIA
India’s bullion markets participated in the global rally:
IBJA Gold 999: approximately ₹148,361 per 10 grams
IBJA Silver 999: approximately ₹225,493 per kilogram
MCX gold rose roughly ₹6,400 per 10 grams over three sessions.
MCX silver advanced approximately ₹11,000 per kilogram.
Elevated prices may restrain jewelry demand, but investment demand and silver’s tight domestic supply remain supportive. IBJA figures should be identified as daily physical benchmarks, while MCX prices represent futures contracts.
CHINA
China’s central-bank gold buying remains an important source of longer-term support. The PBoC added approximately 15 tonnes in June, extending its reported purchase streak to 20 consecutive months.
Shanghai silver remains well above U.S. spot on an unadjusted converted-price basis. However, VAT, contract specifications and timing differences mean the entire displayed spread should not be described as a true physical premium.
WHAT TO WATCH
Friday’s U.S. nonfarm-payroll report
Gold support near $4,200, followed by $4,100
Gold resistance near $4,300
Silver support near $60
Silver resistance near $63
Progress toward reopening or stabilizing the Strait of Hormuz
Further changes in Treasury yields, the dollar and September Fed expectations
KEY TAKEAWAY
The rally is being driven primarily by lower oil-driven inflation concerns, reduced Fed-hike expectations, softer employment data and technical momentum.
Treasury yields have contributed by easing modestly, but they are only one part of the move. Friday’s employment report will determine whether gold can hold above $4,200 and silver can establish a durable breakout above $60.
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Prices are market snapshots and may change rapidly. This publication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Sources: Reuters, India Bullion and Jewellers Association, The Economic Times, World Gold Council, CME Group, MarketWatch, U.S. Treasury, Silver Institute and Global Bullion Tracker.