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GOLD RECLAIMS $4,000 AS OIL EASES
Precious metals begin the week attempting to stabilize after last week's sharp selloff.
Early Monday morning, gold was trading near $4,015/oz, up about 0.5%, after briefly falling below $4,000 overnight. Silver was near $54/oz, while platinum and palladium were slightly lower.
The rebound came as oil prices pulled back from Friday's six-month highs. Brent crude eased toward $114 to $115 per barrel as renewed diplomatic efforts raised hopes that tensions involving Iran could moderate.
That helped relieve some of the inflation and interest-rate pressure that weighed on metals late last week.
However, geopolitical risk remains elevated. Houthi forces said Monday they attacked Saudi oil-pipeline infrastructure and Riyadh's airport, while Saudi forces reported intercepting missiles and drones.
Gold therefore begins the week caught between two forces:
Easing oil prices are reducing inflation pressure, while continued Middle East instability is supporting safe-haven demand.
WHY METALS SOLD OFF
Oil surged late last week as renewed Middle East supply concerns pushed Brent crude above $116 per barrel.
That matters for precious metals because higher energy prices can feed inflation, keep Treasury yields elevated and reduce expectations for easier monetary policy.
Gold therefore faced competing forces. Geopolitical risk supported safe-haven demand, while higher inflation expectations increased the likelihood that interest rates stay restrictive.
For now, the rate effect has been stronger.
Oil eased slightly in early Monday trading, with Brent around $115.79, but prices remain near six-month highs.
THE FED TAKES CENTER STAGE
The Federal Reserve meets Wednesday, October 28.
Markets broadly expect the Fed to leave its policy rate unchanged, but investors will be focused on Chair Kevin Warsh's comments and what they imply for December.
The most important question for metals is whether the Fed continues emphasizing persistent inflation or begins showing greater concern about economic growth.
A more hawkish message could keep pressure on gold and silver.
A more cautious message could provide relief.
THURSDAY MAY MATTER EVEN MORE
Thursday morning brings a heavy slate of U.S. economic data.
At 8:30 a.m. ET, markets will receive:
Third quarter GDP
September PCE inflation
Personal income and spending
Weekly jobless claims
The PCE report is particularly important because it is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure.
The August PCE price index was up 3.4% year over year, and the September report is scheduled for Thursday, October 29.
A hotter reading would reinforce the argument for tighter monetary policy.
A softer reading could ease pressure on Treasury yields and improve the near-term setup for precious metals.
WHAT TO WATCH THIS WEEK
Gold at $4,000
Gold is starting the week almost exactly at a major psychological level.
Holding above $4,000 would suggest buyers are beginning to stabilize the market after last week's decline.
A sustained break below it could invite additional selling.
Silver near $54
Silver remains more volatile than gold and has been hit harder during the latest pullback.
The low-$50s remain an important area to watch.
Oil
Oil may continue to be one of the biggest outside drivers of precious metals this week.
If crude continues to rise, inflation concerns may remain the dominant macro story.
If oil retreats meaningfully, some of the pressure on rates and metals could ease.
The dollar and Treasury yields
Gold's next move will likely depend as much on rates and the dollar as on geopolitical headlines.
A stronger dollar and rising yields would remain headwinds.
Lower yields would improve the setup quickly.
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KEY TAKEAWAY
Precious metals enter the week at an important inflection point.
Gold is sitting near $4,000 after a sharp weekly decline, while higher oil prices have brought inflation and interest-rate risk back to the forefront.
Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision and Thursday's PCE and GDP reports should determine whether the recent pressure continues or whether metals begin to stabilize.
The near-term focus is simple:
Gold at $4,000. Oil near six-month highs. The Fed on Wednesday. Inflation data on Thursday.
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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Sources: GlobalBullionTracker.com, Reuters, Kitco, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Monex.