GLOBAL BULLION TRACKER — METALS BRIEF

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Gold and silver remain near recent highs after Friday’s surprisingly weak U.S. employment report sharply reduced expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike.

July payrolls unexpectedly fell 23,000 versus expectations for an 80,000 increase. Gold surged 2.3% Friday and completed a weekly gain of more than 7%, while silver also rallied strongly. September Fed-hike odds subsequently dropped to roughly 44% from 57% before the jobs report.

Weak U.S. jobs: The payroll contraction significantly weakened the case for another near-term Fed hike.

Lower rate expectations: Reduced Fed-hike odds and softer yields make non-yielding gold and silver more attractive.

Silver outperformance: Silver has moved above $64 and continues to outperform gold during the latest rally, pushing the gold-silver ratio lower. Monday morning silver was up another 0.9%.

Next test — inflation: Wednesday’s CPI and Thursday’s PPI reports will determine whether the post-jobs rally can continue. Markets currently expect July CPI inflation around 3.4% year over year.

Indian bullion prices have risen sharply alongside global metals.

IBJA’s Monday indicative Gold 999 rate was approximately ₹15,106 per gram, or ₹151,060 per 10 grams, substantially above Friday’s PM level of about ₹149,620 per 10 grams.

High prices continue to create resistance in the physical jewelry market, although large organized jewelers are still reporting strong business. Titan reported a 63% increase in quarterly profit and 43% growth in its core jewelry segment, while noting some weakness in plain-gold demand late in July as price volatility increased.

India insight: The market is increasingly split between strong investment/high-end organized retail activity and affordability pressure on traditional physical gold buyers.

China delivered another important structural gold signal: the PBoC increased its reserves again in July, extending its reported buying streak to 21 consecutive months and making its largest monthly addition since October 2023.

China is also expanding Hong Kong’s role in global bullion trading. A new Delivery Connect links physical gold holdings in Hong Kong with the Shanghai Gold Exchange, while Hong Kong plans a major expansion of bullion-storage capacity and a centralized gold-clearing system.

Shanghai silver remains elevated relative to U.S. prices on an unadjusted basis, but VAT, differing contract specifications and timing mean the headline spread should not be interpreted as a pure physical premium.

Inflation is now the key risk. A softer CPI would further weaken the case for another Fed hike and could extend the metals rally; a hotter print could lift yields and the dollar and trigger profit-taking.

Friday’s negative payroll print changed the near-term metals narrative. Expectations for another Fed hike fell sharply, helping push gold above $4,300 and silver above $64.

At the same time, China is accelerating official-sector gold accumulation and expanding its bullion-market infrastructure, while India is showing increasing price resistance among traditional physical buyers.

CPI on Wednesday is the next major test.

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Prices are market snapshots and may change rapidly. This publication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Sources: Reuters, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CME Group/CME FedWatch, India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA), The Economic Times, World Gold Council, People’s Bank of China, Shanghai Gold Exchange, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, University of Michigan, U.S. Census Bureau, Global Bullion Tracker.