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Gold is trading around $4,436 an ounce Monday morning after Friday’s sharp Jackson Hole selloff. Silver is holding up better this morning, trading near $67 and recovering modestly after an even more dramatic reversal late last week.

Despite the late-week reversal, both metals are still closing out a very strong August.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a more hawkish message than markets expected Friday.

Warsh said inflation remains too high and made clear that the Fed may need to raise interest rates again if inflation does not move convincingly toward the 2% target.

Markets reacted quickly. The probability of a September rate hike rose sharply after his remarks, pushing Treasury yields and the dollar higher and pressuring precious metals.

Gold fell more than 3% Friday, while silver also reversed sharply from its highs.

Silver briefly surged above $71 an ounce on Friday, extending August’s powerful rally and appearing to clear the $70 resistance level we had been watching.

That breakout did not hold.

Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks quickly changed the rate outlook, strengthening the dollar and pushing yields higher. Silver reversed sharply and fell back into the upper-$60s.

By Monday morning, silver was trading around $67 and recovering modestly.

The key technical takeaway is that silver did not merely test $70 — it broke above $71 and then failed to hold the breakout.

That makes the $70–$71 area the key resistance zone heading into September. A move back through that range would signal that buyers have regained control. Continued failure there could invite additional consolidation after August’s strong advance.

Friday’s decline also put an important technical level back on the radar.

Gold and GLD have moved back toward their 200-day moving averages, which many investors use as a measure of the longer-term trend.

Gold only recently reclaimed the level during August’s rally. Losing it again would not guarantee a larger decline, but it could encourage more technically driven selling.

The question heading into September is simple:

Does gold stabilize after Jackson Hole, or does a break below the 200-day trigger another leg lower?

The Treasury’s expanded long-bond buybacks helped push longer-term yields lower and weaken the dollar earlier in August, creating a more supportive environment for gold and silver.

Treasury increased planned purchases of older long-term bonds to at least $4 billion per operation, primarily to improve liquidity in parts of the Treasury market.

The move has also intensified debate over the broader U.S. fiscal picture as federal debt exceeds $40 trillion and interest costs continue to rise.

That fiscal backdrop remains supportive for gold over the longer term, even as Fed policy creates short-term pressure.

The United States continues to intensify economic and financial pressure on Iran.

Further escalation could affect oil prices, inflation expectations and safe-haven demand, all of which have implications for precious metals.

This creates competing forces for gold and silver: geopolitical uncertainty can support safe-haven buying, while higher oil-driven inflation could reinforce the Fed’s case for keeping rates elevated.

Trade policy also remains important.

The administration continues pursuing broader tariffs while simultaneously attempting to reduce federal spending and borrowing costs.

Those policies can pull markets in different directions.

Lower government spending could improve the longer-term fiscal picture, while broader tariffs can raise imported-goods prices and add inflation pressure.

That tension matters directly for Treasury yields, the dollar and precious metals.

India continues to show clearer signs of improving physical gold demand.

July gold imports rebounded to an estimated 40–45 tonnes from 20 tonnes in June, while the value of imports more than doubled to approximately $4.16 billion from $1.97 billion.

The World Gold Council has also reported increased inventory replenishment ahead of India’s important festive buying period.

India insight: The October-November festive season remains the next major test of whether physical demand can continue improving despite elevated gold prices.

Central-bank buying rebounded sharply in Q2. Official institutions added a net 289 tonnes of gold, up 62% from a year earlier and a record for a second quarter. That was more than five times the revised Q1 total of 57 tonnes, reinforcing the longer-term trend of central banks diversifying reserves into gold.

That official-sector demand remains an important source of underlying support even when Western investors are focused on inflation, interest rates and the dollar.

Friday’s reversal changed silver’s technical picture, but not its longer-term fundamentals.

The Silver Institute expects 2026 to mark the sixth consecutive annual silver-market deficit, even with mine production near a decade high.

That means the market enters September with two very different signals:

Technically: Friday’s failed $71 breakout creates caution.
Fundamentally: persistent supply deficits continue to support the longer-term silver case.

After Jackson Hole, attention shifts immediately to U.S. employment data.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, provides a fresh look at employer demand for workers.

ISM Manufacturing will also offer another read on economic activity and inflation pressures.

Private-payroll data will provide an early clue ahead of Friday’s government jobs report.

A weak number could challenge the more hawkish rate outlook created by Jackson Hole and potentially provide relief for gold and silver.

Productivity and unit labor-cost data arrive Thursday, followed by ISM Services.

Services inflation will be especially important after Warsh’s warning that price pressures remain too high.

This is the week’s most important event.

July payrolls unexpectedly fell 23,000, while prior months were revised substantially lower.

That puts even more focus on Friday’s August employment report.

A weak jobs number could reduce expectations for another Fed hike and weaken the dollar.

A strong report could reinforce Warsh’s Jackson Hole message, push yields higher and pressure gold and silver again.

For gold, the 200-day moving average is the immediate technical test.

For silver, the story has changed meaningfully after Friday:

$70–$71 is now the major resistance zone after the breakout above $71 failed to hold.

Silver’s ability to recover toward that level will tell us whether Friday’s decline was simply a Jackson Hole shock or the beginning of a deeper consolidation.

August produced a powerful rally in precious metals, but Jackson Hole changed the tone heading into September.

Warsh’s hawkish message pushed rate-hike expectations higher, strengthened the dollar and triggered sharp reversals in both gold and silver.

Silver’s move was especially notable: it broke above $71 on Friday before reversing back into the upper-$60s, turning what looked like a breakout into a failed breakout.

At the same time, longer-term supports remain intact: central-bank gold buying is strong, India’s physical market is recovering, silver remains in a structural deficit and U.S. fiscal concerns continue to grow.

Now the labor market takes over.

Friday’s jobs report may determine whether the Jackson Hole selloff continues — or whether gold and silver get another chance to resume August’s rally.

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

Sources: Reuters, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Supply Management, U.S. Treasury Department, Federal Reserve, CME Group, World Gold Council, Silver Institute, Global Bullion Tracker.