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GOLD GETS RELIEF FROM YIELDS — BUT $4,200 REMAINS ELUSIVE
Gold enters Thursday near $4,140 an ounce, little changed from Monday despite another eventful week across bonds, oil and the global economy.
The positive development for metals has been a retreat in U.S. Treasury yields. Gold rose Wednesday as yields declined, while the dollar also weakened modestly. But the move has been restrained: spot gold finished around $4,138, and silver remained below $58.
The message is becoming familiar: lower yields are helping gold, but investors are not yet ready to chase the metal substantially higher.
FED PAUSE LOOKS LIKELY — DECEMBER IS THE REAL QUESTION
The Federal Reserve meets October 27–28, and expectations have shifted decisively toward no change.
A Reuters survey of 100 economists found 94 expect the Fed to hold its benchmark rate at 3.75%–4.00% next week. The consensus, however, is that tightening is not over. Economists overwhelmingly expect another increase in December as inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target.
That creates an unusual window for gold.
An October pause removes an immediate threat, but a December hike remains a significant headwind. Next week's Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) — the Fed's preferred inflation measure — could therefore matter more than the October decision itself.
HOUSING IS SHOWING THE COST OF HIGH RATES
One of the clearest signs of monetary pressure came from housing.
September pending home sales plunged 7.3% to the lowest level since the series began in 2001. Single-family housing starts fell 4.6%, while building permits dropped to a 3½-year low. The average 30-year mortgage rate has climbed to roughly 7.4%, its highest level in nearly three years. Reuters
That matters for the Fed.
Inflation argues for higher rates. Housing increasingly argues that the existing level of rates is already doing significant economic damage.
Gold investors should watch whether similar weakness begins appearing elsewhere in the economy.
EUROPE PROVIDES ANOTHER FISCAL WARNING
The bond-market story is not confined to the United States.
France's 10-year government yield reached 5% Wednesday for the first time since 2002, as investors demanded more compensation for fiscal and political risk. The spread between French and German borrowing costs has widened sharply.
This is important for gold beyond France.
Rising sovereign borrowing costs reinforce a theme appearing across developed economies: governments carrying large debt loads must refinance at substantially higher rates.
In the short run, high bond yields compete with gold.
Over longer periods, concern about government debt and fiscal sustainability can become part of the argument for owning gold.
OIL REMAINS ABOVE $100
Brent crude settled Wednesday near $108.82, after trading above $110 earlier in the week.
Possible Russia-Ukraine negotiations have provided some relief, but attacks on shipping around the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman continue. At least 18 vessel attacks have been reported over the past two weeks, keeping the risk of another energy-price spike alive.
For metals, oil remains crucial. Another sustained surge would make the Fed's inflation problem considerably harder.
SILVER STILL LAGS
Silver traded around $57.70 Wednesday, remaining substantially weaker than gold and far below the $70–$71 levels reached earlier this fall.
Silver needs first to reclaim $60–$61 before the technical picture meaningfully improves. Until then, the metal remains particularly vulnerable to high yields, dollar strength and economic-growth concerns.
KEY TAKEAWAY
The environment for precious metals is becoming more balanced.
Treasury yields have eased, the dollar has softened and an October Fed hike now appears unlikely — all positive developments for gold.
But inflation remains elevated, oil is still above $100 and another Fed increase in December remains very much in play.
Meanwhile, weakening housing and rising sovereign borrowing costs in Europe are showing the economic consequences of today's high-rate environment.
Gold is getting relief from the bond market. The next question is whether that relief is enough to finally push it back through $4,200.
Sources: Federal Reserve, U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors, Reuters, Global Bullion Tracker.
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For informational purposes only. Nothing in this publication constitutes investment advice.