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SINCE THURSDAY MORNING
Gold and silver surrendered Thursday’s rally during Friday trading as the dollar recovered, then stabilized Monday morning.
Metal | Friday reference | Monday AM | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
Gold | ~$4,049.83 | ~$4,048.84 | Flat |
Silver | ~$57.76 | ~$57.93 | Slightly higher |
Platinum | ~$1,642 | ~$1,643 | Flat |
Gold gained approximately 1% in July, ending a four-month losing streak. Monday’s support came from lower oil prices, a softer dollar and declining Treasury yields after President Trump held off further military action against Iran while pursuing a possible agreement. Iran denied that active negotiations were underway.
WHAT IS DRIVING METALS
Lower oil is easing near-term inflation and interest-rate concerns.
A weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields are supporting bullion.
Reduced geopolitical tension limits some traditional safe-haven demand.
This week’s employment data will shape expectations for the Fed’s next move.
STRUCTURAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS
The PBoC added approximately 15 tonnes of gold in June, its largest monthly purchase since October 2023.
China’s official buying streak reached 20 consecutive months, lifting holdings to roughly 2,346 tonnes.
China purchased approximately 40 tonnes during the first half of 2026, compared with 27 tonnes during all of 2025.
Silver is forecast to record its sixth consecutive annual market deficit in 2026.
INDIA
India’s May 13 increase in gold and silver import duties from 6% to 15% continues to disrupt the official market and encourage grey-market activity.
India’s second-quarter gold demand declined 6% year over year to approximately 131 tonnes. Jewelry demand fell 15%, while net imports dropped 23% to about 98 tonnes—the lowest quarterly level since 2020.
Although the volume of demand weakened, Indian spending on gold reached a Q2 record because of substantially higher prices. Demand may improve ahead of the festive and wedding seasons, but widespread dealer restocking has not yet been clearly confirmed.
CHINA
China’s central-bank buying remains one of gold’s strongest sources of structural support, even as private-sector demand has been uneven.
Shanghai silver continues to trade substantially above U.S. spot on an unadjusted converted-price basis. However, VAT, exchange specifications and timing differences mean the full displayed spread should not be treated as a true physical premium.
WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR
Date | Event |
|---|---|
Mon, Aug. 3 | ISM Manufacturing PMI |
Tue, Aug. 4 | June JOLTS job openings |
Wed, Aug. 5 | ADP employment; ISM Services PMI |
Fri, Aug. 7 | July nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate |
The July employment report is the week’s largest scheduled catalyst. Softer labor data could reduce expectations for another Fed increase, while a stronger report could lift the dollar and Treasury yields.
LEVELS TO WATCH
Gold support: $4,000
Gold resistance: $4,100
Silver support: $57
Silver resistance: $60
KEY TAKEAWAY
Gold and silver enter the week essentially unchanged from Friday. Lower oil, yields and the dollar are supportive, but the market is now focused on U.S. employment data.
China’s continued central-bank purchases and silver’s projected supply deficit support the longer-term case, while India’s higher import duties remain a drag on official demand.
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Prices are market snapshots and may change rapidly. This publication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Sources: Reuters, World Gold Council, Silver Institute, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Supply Management and Global Bullion Tracker.