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WHAT HAPPENED THIS WEEK
Gold and silver finished a volatile Monday-to-Thursday period slightly below Monday’s levels as oil prices, Federal Reserve policy and renewed U.S.-Iran tensions drove trading.
Gold: approximately $4,062 Thursday morning, down 0.3% from Monday’s $4,074 reference.
Silver: approximately $57.62, down 1.4% from Monday’s $58.44.
Gold-silver ratio: approximately 70.5:1, up from 69.7:1 Monday, reflecting silver’s relative underperformance.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
Monday: Gold and silver rose as a pause in U.S.-Iran strikes pushed oil prices lower, easing inflation and interest-rate concerns. Gold closed near $4,074, while silver reached $58.44.
Tuesday: A stronger dollar and expectations for a hawkish Fed pushed gold down approximately 1.2% to $4,026. Silver fell roughly 2.2% to $57.11.
Wednesday: The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, despite three policymakers voting for a quarter-point increase. Gold rallied after the decision as the dollar weakened and traders reduced expectations for a September hike.
Thursday morning: Gold stabilized near $4,062 and silver traded near $57.62. Rising Treasury yields and renewed U.S.-Iran tensions limited gains, while oil prices moved higher again.
FED TAKEAWAY
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized the central bank’s commitment to lowering inflation but offered limited guidance about its next move.
Markets now assign approximately a 65% probability of a September rate increase, down from about 82% Monday. However, the 30-year Treasury yield remains above 5%, showing that long-term inflation concerns persist.
WHAT TO WATCH
Gold support: $4,000–$4,025
Gold resistance: $4,100, followed by $4,165
Silver support: $57, followed by $55–$56
Silver resistance: $59–$60
Oil prices and U.S.-Iran developments
Treasury yields and September Fed expectations
KEY TAKEAWAY
Gold has held up better than silver this week. The Fed decision provided temporary support, but rising oil prices and long-term Treasury yields continue to limit the upside.
A sustained move above $4,100 gold and $59 silver would improve the near-term outlook. Breaks below $4,000 gold or $57 silver would signal renewed weakness.
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Prices are market snapshots and may change rapidly. This publication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Sources: Reuters, Federal Reserve, CME FedWatch and Global Bullion Tracker.