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Gold extended last week’s rally Monday morning, reaching about $4,635 an ounce, its highest level in more than three months. Silver remained elevated after a strong end to last week.

Gold gained more than 5% last week, helped by falling long-term yields, a weaker dollar and renewed technical momentum. On Friday, gold broke above its 200-day moving average near $4,513, helping accelerate the move.

The Treasury’s expanded long-bond buybacks helped push longer-term yields lower and weaken the dollar, creating a more supportive backdrop for gold and silver. Treasury doubled planned buybacks of 10- to 30-year securities to as much as $4 billion per operation, bringing renewed attention to bond-market liquidity and the U.S. fiscal outlook.

The move comes as markets continue to wrestle with inflation, elevated long-term borrowing costs and federal debt above $40 trillion. Gold is benefiting from those longer-term fiscal concerns, but rising yields remain an important risk if inflation expectations move higher again.

Geopolitical risk also moved back toward the center of the metals market. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is preparing additional economic pressure on Iran, building on sanctions already aimed at cutting Iran off from international financing and foreign currency. Treasury has described its campaign as an effort to target the networks allowing Iran to move money outside the conventional financial system.

For precious metals, the significance is broader than Iran itself. Escalation could affect oil prices and inflation expectations while increasing demand for traditional safe-haven assets.

Markets are also watching the administration’s continued use of tariffs and its efforts to restrain federal spending. The combination presents a complicated backdrop for metals: spending restraint could improve the longer-term fiscal picture, while broader tariffs can add inflation pressure and complicate the Fed’s job.

That tension — slower spending growth on one side and potentially inflationary trade policy on the other — is becoming an increasingly important part of the gold story.

High bullion prices continue to pressure physical gold demand in India. Reuters reported Friday that buyers remained reluctant to chase the rally as prices moved sharply higher.

India insight: The approaching festive season will be an important test. A meaningful narrowing of dealer discounts would be one early indication that physical demand is improving despite record prices.

Chinese physical demand held relatively steady during Friday’s surge in gold, contrasting with weaker buying in India.

The bigger China story continues to be the shift toward investment and official-sector demand rather than traditional jewelry consumption. That remains an important trend to watch as bullion prices move deeper into record territory.

The July Personal Income and Outlays report, including the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation measures, is scheduled for Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. The BEA will release the second estimate of second-quarter GDP at the same time.

PCE may be the week’s most important economic data point for gold. A softer-than-expected inflation reading could ease pressure on Treasury yields and support metals. A hotter reading could revive expectations for additional Fed tightening.

The MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey is also due Wednesday.

This report normally receives less attention from precious-metals investors, but it is increasingly useful because mortgage rates provide a direct look at how high long-term interest rates are affecting the real economy. Continued weakness in applications would add to evidence that elevated borrowing costs are restraining housing activity.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium runs August 27–29. This year’s theme is “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.”

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s appearance is likely to be the most important event for metals. Bond investors are looking for clearer guidance on how the Fed views persistent inflation, elevated long-term yields and the possibility of additional rate increases.

The stakes are unusually high: Warsh’s comments could quickly move Treasury yields, the dollar and therefore gold and silver.

Wednesday also brings the second estimate of Q2 GDP, while investors will be watching consumer-confidence data, durable goods and Nvidia earnings for additional clues about the strength of the U.S. economy.

Gold holding above $4,600 would reinforce the breakout, while the area around $4,700 is emerging as the next major technical level. Silver’s ability to remain near the upper-$60s will also be important after Friday’s strong move.

But this week is likely to be driven less by technicals and more by macro policy:

PCE → Treasury yields → Jackson Hole → Fed expectations.

Gold begins the week with considerable momentum after gaining more than 5% last week and reaching its highest level in more than three months.

The Treasury’s expanded bond-buyback program and weaker dollar provided the initial push. Now the focus shifts to PCE inflation and Jackson Hole, while escalating economic pressure on Iran, tariffs and the U.S. fiscal outlook provide a broader geopolitical and macroeconomic backdrop.

If inflation comes in softer and Warsh avoids a strongly hawkish message, gold could make another attempt at $4,700. A hotter PCE report or renewed rise in long-term yields would be the clearest near-term threat to the rally.

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

Sources: Reuters, Financial Times, U.S. Department of the Treasury, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Mortgage Bankers Association, CME Group, Global Bullion Tracker.