GLOBAL BULLION TRACKER — METALS BRIEF

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Gold is trading around $4,405 an ounce Thursday morning, slightly above Monday’s level, while silver has climbed to roughly $67.10.

The relatively small move in gold hides a much bigger macro battle: $100 oil, rising long-term Treasury yields and renewed inflation concerns are colliding with a softer dollar and persistent demand for gold.

The biggest event for precious metals is still ahead.

Today at 8:30 a.m. ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases August’s Producer Price Index, or PPI, which measures changes in prices received by producers.

Tomorrow at 8:30 comes the more important Consumer Price Index, or CPI, which measures changes in the prices consumers pay for goods and services.

Markets have become increasingly divided over next week’s Fed decision. Most economists still expect the Fed to hold rates steady, but strong payrolls, persistent inflation and higher energy prices have kept the possibility of another hike firmly in play.

For metals, the setup is straightforward: a hotter CPI could push yields and the dollar higher and pressure gold. A softer report could quickly strengthen the case for a Fed hold.

The policy differences between Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are becoming increasingly important for metals investors.

Warsh’s priority is inflation. His Jackson Hole message was that inflation remains too high and monetary policy may need to stay restrictive — or tighten further — until price pressures are clearly moving back toward the Fed’s 2% target.

Bessent’s framework puts greater emphasis on GDP growth, fiscal restraint, lower government spending, deregulation and Treasury-market functioning.

Bessent’s argument is that stronger economic growth is itself part of the solution to America’s fiscal challenges. A larger economy makes deficits and debt more manageable relative to national income and can generate additional tax revenue.

This week provided a real-world test of that approach. Treasury announced a $6 billion long-term bond buyback, up from the recently expanded $4 billion level, while long-term yields remained elevated.

The policy difference is therefore not simply about whether rates should be higher or lower.

Warsh’s position: inflation remains persistent enough to justify restrictive monetary policy, even if that slows economic activity.

Bessent’s position: policymakers also need to protect GDP growth because higher rates can become counterproductive if they slow the economy while simultaneously increasing the government’s interest expense.

For metals investors, both sides matter.

Warsh represents the near-term headwind through higher real yields and potentially a stronger dollar.

Bessent’s approach raises the longer-term question of whether the U.S. can grow fast enough to offset deficits, rising interest costs and a debt load above $40 trillion. If investors doubt that growth can outpace the debt burden, the diversification case for gold becomes stronger.

Brent crude is holding near $100 a barrel amid continued Middle East tensions and concerns about energy supplies.

That presents gold investors with competing forces.

Geopolitical uncertainty can increase safe-haven demand, while higher oil prices can add to inflation, lift Treasury yields and give the Fed more reason to keep monetary policy restrictive.

For now, both forces are operating simultaneously.

One of the strongest fundamental signals came from the World Gold Council.

Global gold-backed ETFs attracted approximately $18 billion in August, led by North American and European funds. ETF holdings increased by 121 tonnes to a record 4,189 tonnes, while assets under management rose sharply during the month.

The World Gold Council estimates gold itself gained roughly 13% in August, making it one of the metal’s strongest monthly performances in decades.

That matters because August’s rally was not driven solely by central banks or Asian physical demand.

Western investment flows returned in force.

Mortgage applications fell 2.7% last week, with refinancing activity dropping about 6%.

That matters to the Bessent-Warsh policy discussion because higher long-term rates are already feeding into the real economy.

Raising rates may help fight inflation, but higher borrowing costs also pressure households, businesses and housing activity — potentially restraining the GDP growth Bessent views as essential to improving the fiscal picture.

Silver has recovered to around $67.10 after falling sharply from its brief move above $71 following Jackson Hole.

Silver has outperformed gold this week as the dollar weakened and investors returned to the metal after last week’s sharp reversal.

The $70–$71 area remains the major technical test.

Silver’s longer-term supply story remains constructive, but bulls still need to reclaim that failed breakout zone before momentum clearly returns.

Central-bank buying rebounded sharply in Q2. Official institutions added a net 289 tonnes of gold, up 62% from a year earlier and a record for a second quarter. That was more than five times the revised Q1 total of 57 tonnes, reinforcing the longer-term trend of central banks diversifying reserves into gold.

Official-sector demand remains an important source of underlying support even while Western investors focus on inflation, interest rates and the dollar.

Today’s PPI provides the first inflation signal, followed by Friday’s CPI — the final major inflation report before the Sept. 15–16 Fed meeting.

Treasury’s long-bond market also deserves attention after yields remained elevated despite Bessent’s larger buyback announcement.

The question heading into Friday is increasingly simple:

Does inflation validate Warsh’s case for tighter policy — or give Bessent more room to emphasize economic growth and lower borrowing costs?

Gold has held around $4,400 despite strong jobs, high oil prices and elevated long-term yields. Silver has recovered more strongly, while Western gold ETF demand has returned dramatically.

Underneath the daily price action, the most important policy story is becoming clearer: Warsh is prioritizing inflation control, while Bessent is placing greater emphasis on GDP growth, fiscal discipline and reducing the burden of high borrowing costs.

Both approaches matter for metals.

Warsh presents the immediate risk through higher rates and real yields. Bessent’s framework speaks to the longer-term question of whether the U.S. economy can grow quickly enough to keep a $40 trillion-plus debt burden manageable.

Friday’s CPI report could determine which side of that debate markets focus on heading into next week’s Fed decision.

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

Sources: Reuters, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury Department, Mortgage Bankers Association, World Gold Council, Global Bullion Tracker.