GLOBAL BULLION TRACKER — METALS BRIEF

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Gold is trading near $4,394 an ounce Monday morning, while silver is around $65.6. U.S. markets are closed for Labor Day, so today’s thinner trading should not be over-read.

Friday’s August jobs report changed the tone heading into the holiday weekend. U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs, well above expectations, while unemployment held at 4.1%. That strengthened the case for another Fed hike and pushed market-implied odds of a September increase to roughly 58%.

The next major test is inflation.

A potentially important policy divide is emerging in Washington, and it matters directly for gold.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is focused first on inflation. His Jackson Hole message was that inflation remains too high, the labor market is still resilient, and the Fed may need to keep policy restrictive or tighten further if price pressures do not move convincingly toward its 2% target.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent takes a broader view. He has emphasized economic growth, fiscal discipline, lower government spending, deregulation and Treasury-market functioning as important parts of the solution.

Bessent’s argument is that stronger GDP growth is itself part of the fiscal solution. A faster-growing economy makes debt and deficits more manageable relative to national income and can generate additional tax revenue. His broader strategy also includes tariffs, spending restraint and attempts to improve Treasury-market liquidity. Recent analysis of the fiscal debate specifically identifies growth, tariffs and fraud reduction among the administration’s tools for reducing the deficit burden.

The disagreement therefore goes beyond whether rates should rise.

Warsh’s position: inflation remains persistent enough to justify restrictive monetary policy, even at some cost to economic growth.

Bessent’s position: policymakers also need to protect and expand GDP growth because higher rates can become counterproductive if they slow the economy while simultaneously increasing the government’s interest expense.

For metals investors, both sides matter. Warsh represents the immediate headwind through higher real yields and potentially a stronger dollar. Bessent’s framework raises the longer-term question of whether the U.S. can grow fast enough to offset deficits, rising interest costs and debt above $40 trillion. If investors doubt that growth can outrun the debt burden, the diversification case for gold becomes stronger.

After Friday’s strong jobs report, inflation data could determine the Fed’s next move.

Thursday, Sept. 10: August Producer Price Index
Friday, Sept. 11: August Consumer Price Index and real earnings

The Consumer Price Index, or CPI, measures changes in the prices consumers pay for goods and services.

A hotter CPI report would strengthen Warsh’s argument and likely increase expectations for a September hike. A softer reading could quickly shift markets back toward a Fed hold and provide relief for gold and silver. BLS confirms PPI for Thursday and CPI for Friday, both at 8:30 a.m. ET.

The Fed’s Sept. 15–16 FOMC meeting then follows next week, with the rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET Wednesday and Warsh’s press conference at 2:30.

Energy prices add another layer to the debate.

Brent crude has been trading around the upper-$90s amid continued Middle East tensions. Higher energy prices can simultaneously increase geopolitical safe-haven demand for gold and raise inflation expectations, which can push yields higher and pressure bullion.

That is exactly the kind of inflation Bessent’s growth-focused framework and Warsh’s rate-focused framework may interpret differently.

A Financial Times investigation highlights a major change in global physical-gold flows.

Hong Kong imported nearly 100 tonnes of Russian gold during the first seven months of 2026, almost triple the amount imported during the same period last year. Since Western sanctions pushed Russian bullion out of traditional London channels, more of that metal has been redirected toward Asian markets.

Since 2022, Hong Kong entities have purchased about $35 billion of Russian gold, with much of it ultimately moving into mainland China.

This is not necessarily a bullish price catalyst by itself. But it is important structurally: sanctions are changing the geography of the physical gold trade and strengthening Hong Kong’s role as an Asian bullion hub.

China remains central to the eastward shift in bullion demand.

Official-sector buying and growing physical flows through Hong Kong continue to reinforce Asia’s importance in the global gold market. The broader trend matters more than any one monthly reserve number: central banks and Asian buyers are becoming increasingly important sources of physical demand.

Mining equities were one of the clearest confirmations of August’s metals rally.

The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index gained roughly 33% in August, substantially outperforming bullion. That is the type of move worth watching because miners often amplify changes in gold prices through operating leverage.

When gold rises faster than costs, producer margins can expand quickly. When bullion weakens, the same leverage can work in reverse.

We’ll continue highlighting miner performance when the move is significant rather than making it a standing weekly section.

Silver remains in the mid-$60s after briefly trading above $71 before Warsh’s Jackson Hole comments.

The longer-term supply-deficit story remains intact, but the failed breakout means silver still needs to reclaim the $70–$71 area before momentum clearly turns higher again.

This week comes down to one question:

Does inflation confirm Warsh’s hawkish stance — or strengthen Bessent’s argument that sustaining economic growth is essential to solving the fiscal problem?

Strong jobs have given the Fed room to tighten. Now CPI will determine whether inflation gives it the justification.

The metals market is caught between two very different policy frameworks.

Warsh is emphasizing inflation control and the possibility of higher rates. Bessent is emphasizing GDP growth, spending restraint, deregulation and fiscal management as a path toward making America’s debt burden more sustainable.

For gold, Warsh is the near-term risk. Bessent’s thesis is the longer-term test: can the U.S. economy grow quickly enough to keep a $40 trillion-plus debt burden manageable?

At the same time, Russian bullion is increasingly moving through Hong Kong, Asia’s role in physical gold continues to expand, and mining equities have been amplifying moves in bullion.

This week, CPI gets the final word before the Fed.

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

Sources: Reuters, Financial Times, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury Department, World Gold Council, Global Bullion Tracker.