WHAT HAPPENED THIS WEEKEND
Gold is stabilizing near $4,020 Monday morning after posting its biggest weekly decline in six weeks. Spot gold fell roughly 2.6% last week as escalating U.S.-Iran tensions drove oil prices higher, intensified inflation concerns and increased expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise rates later this year.
Silver rebounded to approximately $56.80 Monday after trading near $55.20 at Friday’s intraday low. Platinum was broadly stable near $1,595.
Markets are currently pricing roughly even odds of a September Fed rate increase and approximately an 80% probability of at least one hike by December. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield has moved back above 5%.
Gold’s first technical test is whether it can hold the $4,000 area. A near-term range of approximately $3,950 to $4,060 is the key zone to watch as oil prices, Fed commentary and U.S.-Iran headlines drive trading.
SPOT PRICES
Metal | Friday Reference | Monday AM | Direction
Gold | ~$4,011 | ~$4,019 | Up
Silver | ~$55.90 | ~$56.79 | Up
Platinum | ~$1,592 | ~$1,595 | Slightly up
WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR
Monday, July 20: Conference Board Leading Economic Index
Thursday, July 23: Weekly initial jobless claims
Friday, July 24: S&P Global flash manufacturing and services PMIs; June new-home sales
July 28–29: Federal Open Market Committee meeting
No CPI or monthly employment report is scheduled this week. The next CPI report, covering July, will be released August 12.
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