WHAT MOVED THIS WEEK
- Gold fell to roughly $4,036/oz Thursday morning, down about 0.7% from Monday's open, as renewed US-Iran tensions and higher oil offset a temporary bounce from softer inflation data.
- Silver fell harder, toward the high-$57 range (about 2.6% WTD), pushing the gold-silver ratio to about 70:1. That's real short-term weakness, though not extreme versus history; the ratio exceeded 100:1 during the 2020 market stress.
- June CPI fell 0.4% month over month (largest drop since April 2020), cooling to 3.5% year over year from 4.2%; core CPI eased to 2.6% year over year.
- June PPI also fell 0.3% month over month, but renewed Strait of Hormuz tension kept oil elevated, pushing September Fed hike odds back up into the mid to high 40s (estimates ranged roughly 45% to 51% across providers this week).
SPOT PRICES
Metal Monday Open Thursday AM WTD Change
Gold $4,064/oz ~$4,036/oz ~-0.7%
Silver $58.85/oz ~$57.30/oz ~-2.6%
Platinum $1,621/oz ~$1,645/oz ~+1.5%
SPREAD WATCH
- China Silver Premium: Shanghai trading roughly 11.5% to 12.5% above COMEX/global spot (AM/PM fix, July 15). This is a headline exchange comparison and is not fully normalized for VAT or currency conversion, so treat it as directional.
- China Gold Premium: Between a $1/oz discount and a $5/oz premium in the latest dealer survey (week of July 10), broadly balanced.
- India Gold Premium: Discounts of up to roughly $19/oz in the latest survey (week of July 10), sharply narrowed from the record discount of roughly $207/oz set in mid-May after India's import duty was raised from 6% to 15%.
WHAT'S DRIVING THE MARKET
Bullish:
- PBoC's 20th consecutive month of gold buying. Reserves now roughly 2,346 tonnes.
- Softer June CPI and PPI briefly trimmed near-term Fed hike odds.
- Silver's structural deficit remains unresolved: a sixth straight annual shortfall of 46.3 million ounces, per the Silver Institute.
- China and India investment demand has stayed relatively resilient despite the price pullback.
Bearish:
- Renewed US-Iran hostilities and the reinstated naval blockade near the Strait of Hormuz are keeping oil elevated.
- North American gold ETFs remain firmly net sellers: $5.5 billion of outflows in June alone and $7.7 billion for H1 2026, even as global flows stay positive on Asian demand.
- Silver is underperforming gold sharply; the ratio's move toward 70:1 reflects growth sensitive selling.
- India's 15% import duty continues to weigh on physical volumes even as the discount narrows.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
- Strait of Hormuz escalation or de-escalation remains the single biggest swing factor for oil and safe-haven flows into Friday.
- Fed Chair Warsh wrapped Congressional testimony July 15 (House July 14, Senate July 15). Watch for follow-on commentary from other Fed speakers.
- Any Mideast or data surprise could reprice rate expectations quickly heading into the weekend.
- Standard weekend gap risk is elevated given the geopolitical backdrop.
UNITED STATES
- June CPI fell 0.4% month over month (largest drop since April 2020), cooling to 3.5% year over year from 4.2%; core CPI eased to 2.6% year over year. June PPI also declined 0.3% month over month, with underlying core measures showing only modest increases.
- That disinflation was partly offset by renewed Strait of Hormuz linked oil pressure. Market-implied September hike odds moved back up into the mid to high 40s this week after briefly dipping lower.
- North American listed gold ETFs remain firmly net sellers this year: $5.5 billion in June and $7.7 billion for H1 2026 overall, the weakest first half for the region since 2013, even as global ETF flows stayed positive, led by Asia.
INDIA
Demand is stabilizing, not roaring back, as duty-hit buyers slowly return.
- The record import duty hike (6% to 15%) in mid-May continues to weigh on jewelry and bar/coin volumes. World Gold Council estimates suggest 2026 jewelry and bar/coin demand could decline by roughly 50 to 60 tonnes (about 10% year on year) as a result.
- The domestic discount to landed price has narrowed sharply, from a record of roughly $207/oz right after the May duty hike to roughly $19/oz in the latest survey, signaling buyers are gradually absorbing the higher cost.
- Retail gold sat near Rs. 1.44 to 1.46 lakh per 10g and silver dipped below Rs. 2.2 lakh/kg this week as global prices softened.
Gold Insight: Q1 2026 investment demand (bars/coins, up 54% year on year) was the standout before the duty hike, a reminder that Indian buyers rotate toward gold as a savings vehicle even when jewelry volumes lag.
CHINA
- The PBoC added 14.93 tonnes of gold in June, its largest single-month addition since October 2023, extending its buying streak to 20 consecutive months and pushing reserves to roughly 2,346 tonnes.
- The purchase came during a weak quarter for gold prices, which suggests reserve diversification remains a strategic priority for Beijing rather than a response solely to short-term price momentum.
- China's Q1 silver imports hit a record pace earlier this year, a structural draw on global inventories that continues to underpin the elevated onshore silver premium.
Gold Insight: Persistent PBoC buying through a down quarter reinforces the view that China's reserve diversification is a multi-year strategic program rather than a tactical trade.
SILVER
- Silver underperformed gold sharply this week, falling toward the high-$57 range as the gold-silver ratio pushed out to roughly 70:1. That's notable short-term weakness, though not extreme versus history; the ratio has exceeded 100:1 in prior stress periods.
- The Silver Institute's World Silver Survey 2026 confirmed a sixth consecutive annual deficit (46.3 million ounces), but also projects total industrial fabrication to decline about 2% in 2026 to a four-year low near 650 million ounces, driven by softer photovoltaic demand and partially offset by data-center, AI-infrastructure, and automotive consumption.
- Industrial applications accounted for roughly 58% of total silver demand in 2025, part of why rate-hike jitters hit silver harder than gold this week.
Silver Insight: The move toward a 70:1 ratio marks real short-term weakness in silver's relative performance, but it isn't historically extreme. Worth watching for a catch-up move if rate-hike odds fade, though that pattern would need confirming against prior cycles rather than assumed from the ratio alone.
MINING AND FLOWS
- PBoC added 14.93 tonnes of gold in June, its 20th straight month of purchases (reported July 7).
- Gold, silver, and mining equities rolled over this week as the Strait of Hormuz oil spike revived Fed rate hike bets, erasing the early-week bounce (July 14).
- The gold-silver ratio touched roughly 70:1 intraday as silver underperformed on growth sensitive selling (July 15).
- The Silver Institute's World Silver Survey 2026, released in April, projects industrial fabrication falling to a four-year low even as the sixth straight annual deficit persists.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
1. Gold fell modestly WTD (about 0.7%) as softer CPI/PPI was partly offset by a Mideast-driven oil spike; support held in the low-$4,000s.
2. Silver was hit harder (about 2.6% WTD), dragging the gold-silver ratio to roughly 70:1. That's a real short-term deterioration, though not extreme by historical standards.
3. Central-bank demand remains the structural backstop. PBoC's 20th consecutive monthly gold purchase confirms buying hasn't slowed despite price weakness.
4. India's import-duty discount has narrowed to roughly $19/oz from a record of about $207/oz post-hike in May, signaling demand is stabilizing even as headline volumes stay soft.
5. Next week's setup hinges on the Strait of Hormuz: escalation revives the inflation/rate-hike bid against metals, while de-escalation could unlock the disinflation-driven rally that stalled this week. Silver's projected four-year-low industrial demand for 2026 is a structural headwind worth watching alongside the supply deficit.
Sources: Kitco, Trading Economics, Convex, CNBC, Reuters (via Yahoo Finance/Fortune), World Gold Council/Goldhub, Silver Institute (World Silver Survey 2026), GoldSilver.com, Business Today, Goodreturns, Mining Weekly, Invezz, MarketScreener, South China Morning Post