WHAT HAPPENED THIS WEEKEND
- Gold closed Friday at $4,063 (+0.72%) as month-end buying and a May PCE print (4.1% YoY) that came in exactly in-line with consensus eased the week's selling pressure; silver added 1.32% to $59.04, recovering from a brutal ~9% weekly slide driven by hawkish Fed fears.
- Silver dropped below $57 intra-week before staging its Friday bounce -- the weekly low came after the PCE data confirmed rate hikes are back on the table; gold also tested $3,980 before recovering.
- Sunday Asian session lifted spot gold to ~$4,116 before Monday US opening softened it to $4,052; silver opened at $58.42 -- both metals treading water into a holiday-shortened week with US markets closed Friday July 3.
- The World Gold Council's annual central bank survey found 89% of respondents expect global gold reserves to increase over the next 12 months -- the highest reading on record and a structural anchor for the long-term bull case regardless of near-term monetary headwinds.
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SPOT PRICES
Metal Friday Close Monday AM Direction
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Gold $4,063.17 $4,052.20 Down
Silver $59.04 $58.42 Down
Platinum est. ~$1,590 $1,607.30 Up
(Monday AM prices as of early US session; platinum Friday close estimated.)
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SPREAD WATCH
China Silver Premium: +10.80% (SGE $65.48 vs COMEX $59.10 as of June 26)
China Gold Premium: ~+$17/oz (SGE over London spot, week ending June 25)
India Gold Premium: ~Rs.1.23 lakh/10g domestic 24K retail
Live spreads at GlobalBullionTracker.com
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WHAT'S DRIVING THE MARKET
BULLISH
- PBoC buying streak: 19 consecutive months; 8t in April (highest since Dec 2024)
- WGC central bank survey: 89% expect global reserves to grow -- record reading
- ETF flows returning: $1.1B inflow snapped four weeks of redemptions; YTD net ~+$17B
- India seasonal demand: inauspicious window* ended mid-June; Diwali restocking cycle begins
- China May gold imports: 163t (2-year high); YTD 692t, +76% YoY
- Shanghai silver premium +10.8% -- physical tightness; export licensing limits arbitrage
- Q1 global bar/coin demand: 474t -- 2nd-highest quarterly record, +42% YoY
BEARISH
- Warsh Fed hawkish: 9/18 dot-plot members project hike before year-end; BofA calls 3 hikes
- CME December hike probability: 88% -- highest since early 2023
- May PCE 4.1%: double the Fed's 2% target; keeps real-yield pressure on gold
- Gold ~27% below Jan 28 ATH ($5,589); silver ~30% off early 2026 peak
- ETF May outflows: 16t -- one-week inflow reversal not yet confirmed as trend
- Iran ceasefire (mid-June) partially deflated safe-haven bid
- Short holiday week: thin liquidity amplifies moves in either direction
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WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR
Mon June 30 Chicago PMI; Consumer Confidence (Conference Board)
USD direction signal
Wed July 1 ISM Manufacturing PMI -- June
Industrial demand proxy; silver-sensitive. May was 54% (expansionary)
Thu July 2 ADP Employment; Initial Jobless Claims
June NFP likely moved from Friday -- major USD/gold mover
All week Potential Fed speakers (Warsh era)
Any hawkish signal = dollar strength, metals headwind
Fri July 3 US MARKETS CLOSED (July 4 holiday observed)
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UNITED STATES
- May PCE came in at 4.1% YoY on Thursday, exactly in-line with consensus. Metals initially sold off before recovering Friday as month-end buying and dollar softness provided relief. Trimmed mean PCE continued its underlying downtrend at 2.4% -- a nuance the market largely ignored.
- Gold ETF flows flipped positive for one week: a $1.1B inflow snapped four consecutive weeks of redemptions, with global holdings at 4,121 tonnes ($604B AUM) -- still 55 tonnes below the February 2026 record. YTD net flows remain strongly positive at ~$17B.
- Fed Chair Warsh held rates at 3.50%-3.75% at his first June 17 meeting; the dot plot has shifted hawkishly with 9 of 18 members projecting at least one hike before year-end. BofA forecasts three 25bp hikes by December; CME markets price December at 88% probability.
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INDIA
With the inauspicious window* now past, the restocking clock has started -- and any price dip will be bought.
- India's domestic 24K gold price was approximately Rs.12,319-12,328 per gram (~Rs.1.23 lakh per 10g) on June 29, down from peak levels above Rs.1.44 lakh per 10g seen in early 2026 when spot was near the January ATH.
- Q1 2026 gold demand hit 151 tonnes (+10% YoY), with value reaching a record INR 2,275 billion ($25B) -- confirming that Indian buyers absorbed peak prices and are likely to be more aggressive on any meaningful pullback.
- Silver at approximately Rs.240/g is drawing retail investor interest, particularly from younger buyers priced out of gold at ATH levels.
India Gold Insight: The inauspicious window* closed around mid-June. Historically, the 4-8 weeks following this period see sharp jewelry dealer and importer restocking ahead of the wedding season and Diwali/Dhanteras (Oct-Nov). Any sustained dip toward Rs.1.20 lakh per 10g is likely to trigger aggressive Indian buying, providing a meaningful demand floor.
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CHINA
- PBoC extended its gold buying streak to 19 consecutive months, with 8 tonnes in April -- the most in any single month since December 2024 -- as China's systematic reserve accumulation continues as part of a long-term yuan credibility project.
- May gold imports hit 163 tonnes (a 2-year monthly high), lifting YTD to 692 tonnes (+76% YoY). Much of the surge was front-loaded ahead of a new import licensing regime effective June 1, 2026; whether the new rules throttle or redirect demand will be clearer in the July customs data (mid-August).
- Q1 silver imports reached ~1,626 tonnes -- a record quarterly inflow -- driven by solar manufacturing front-loading and retail investor demand. April-May volumes likely pulled back; June data pending.
China Gold Insight: The June 1 import licensing change is the key structural wildcard for H2. PBoC demand is policy-driven and immune to paperwork; but discretionary commercial imports could slow temporarily if the new regime adds friction. Watch July customs data in mid-August.
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SILVER
- Shanghai silver trades at a +10.80% premium to COMEX ($65.48 SGE vs $59.10 Western spot as of June 26) -- the most persistent spread since 2021 -- a direct result of China's silver export licensing rules in place since January 1, 2026, which prevent arbitrageurs from closing the gap through normal trade flows.
- Global silver coin and bar demand is forecast to rise 18% in 2026, with physical buying persisting even through the severe price pullback from January highs -- investors treat silver as both a monetary asset and an industrial play.
- The Iran ceasefire removed some of silver's geopolitical bid, but structural industrial demand drivers (solar, EVs) provide a separate floor; the current headwind is monetary, not industrial.
Silver Insight: A +10.8% physical premium in Shanghai that arbitrage cannot close is an unusual signal. Historically, large sustained physical-paper divergences resolve by paper prices moving up -- not physical prices softening. COMEX warehouse inventory levels and lease rates are the early-warning metrics to watch.
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MINING & FLOWS
- GoGold Resources received federal approval to begin construction of its $227M Los Ricos South underground gold-silver mine in Jalisco, Mexico -- a near-term production addition in a closely watched Latin American corridor. (June 2026)
- Bunker Hill Mining reported first silver-zinc-lead concentrate production from its restarted Bunker Hill Mine in Idaho's Silver Valley -- the newest silver mine in the USA coming online as physical markets are tight. (June 2026)
- Independence Gold announced a new gold-silver vein discovery at the Balrog Target within its 3Ts project in central British Columbia -- early-stage, but in a proven geological belt. (June 2026)
- Eldorado Gold achieved first copper concentrate production at McIlvenna Bay underground mine, Saskatchewan -- copper byproduct adds project optionality. (June 2026)
- Global gold ETF holdings: 4,121 tonnes ($604B AUM), 55t below the February 2026 record; the $1.1B single-week inflow is the first meaningful reversal signal in two months. (June 2026)
- COMEX and London silver inventories continued outflows through June, with lease rates spiking intermittently -- a sign of physical delivery stress in near-term silver markets. (June 2026)
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KEY TAKEAWAYS
1. Watch Fed speakers, not just the data. With Warsh chairing his first full policy cycle, the market is still calibrating to a more hawkish baseline. Any hawkish commentary this week could push December hike odds above 90% -- a near-term headwind for both metals.
2. India is the demand story of July. The inauspicious window* is over; jewelry buyers and dealers are expected to restock ahead of Diwali/Dhanteras. Price dips toward Rs.1.20 lakh/10g should see strong physical absorption from Indian importers and retailers.
3. China's import licensing change is the H2 wildcard. We won't know if the June 1 regime shift throttles demand until mid-August customs data. PBoC buying remains the structural anchor; discretionary flows are the variable.
4. Silver's physical-paper divergence won't last. A +10.8% Shanghai premium with export restrictions in place is not a stable equilibrium. Structural deficit arguments favor paper prices correcting up, not physical prices softening -- watch COMEX warehouse levels and lease rates.
5. Short week = amplified moves. Four-day trading compressed around ISM Manufacturing (Wednesday) and likely NFP (Thursday) could produce exaggerated swings. Thin pre-holiday liquidity through July 2 is a known risk factor -- position sizing matters this week.
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* Inauspicious window: In India, certain periods on the Hindu calendar are considered unfavorable for major purchases, particularly gold and jewelry. Mid-May to mid-June is one such period. When it ends, jewelry buyers and dealers historically restock quickly ahead of the wedding and festive season (Diwali, Dhanteras), making it a reliable and recurring seasonal demand signal.
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Sources: Kitco | JM Bullion | CNBC | Yahoo Finance | FXStreet | World Gold Council | Bloomberg | BullionExchanges.com | GoldSilver.com | ISA Bullion | GoodReturns.in | FindBullionPrices.com | GoldSilver.ai